The 2026 COLA will be announced in October 2025, but early forecasts suggest a smaller raise than recent years

The Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 Social Security benefits has not been set yet. The Social Security Administration announces the COLA each October for the following year, based on inflation data from the third quarter. For 2026, that announcement will come in October 2025.

Current forecasts from independent analysts and research groups suggest the 2026 COLA will fall between 2.0% and 2.6%, which would be lower than the 2024 adjustment (3.2%) and the 2025 adjustment (3.2%). These forecasts are educated guesses based on inflation trends through mid-2025 and are not official figures. The actual COLA depends entirely on inflation data that has not yet been recorded.

If inflation remains near current levels through September 2025, beneficiaries would see a smaller increase in their monthly check than they received in 2024 or 2025. However, if inflation rises unexpectedly in the coming months, the COLA could be higher than current forecasts suggest.

Key Takeaways

  • The official 2026 COLA will be announced in October 2025 and takes effect in January 2026.
  • Current forecasts predict a COLA between 2.0% and 2.6%, which would be smaller than the past two years.
  • The COLA is calculated using inflation data from July, August, and September 2025, so it cannot be known until October.
  • A smaller COLA still means a benefit increase, but the monthly raise will be less than recent years if forecasts hold.
  • Forecasts from different sources vary slightly because they use different inflation models and assumptions about future price changes.

How the COLA is calculated and why it changes year to year

The COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), a monthly measure of inflation published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Social Security Administration compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year to the same three months from the previous year. If inflation has occurred, the percentage increase becomes the COLA.

The COLA changes year to year because inflation itself changes. When prices rise faster, the COLA is larger. When inflation slows, the COLA shrinks. In 2022, the COLA was 8.7% because inflation had spiked. In 2023, it fell to 3.2%. In 2024 and 2025, it remained at 3.2%. For 2026, forecasters expect it to drop further because inflation has cooled from its 2022 peak.

The COLA cannot be negative. If inflation were to turn negative (deflation), the COLA would be 0%, and benefits would not decrease. This has happened only three times since COLA began in 1975: in 2010, 2011, and 2016.

Why 2026 forecasts are lower than 2024 and 2025

The 2024 and 2025 COLAs were both 3.2% because inflation remained elevated through mid-2024 and mid-2025. Prices for food, energy, and housing stayed well above their pre-pandemic levels, keeping the year-over-year inflation rate in the 3% range.

Forecasters expect 2026 to be different because inflation has been trending downward since late 2023. If that trend continues through September 2025, the comparison between the third quarter of 2025 and the third quarter of 2024 will show a smaller increase. Most forecasts cluster between 2.0% and 2.6%, though some models predict it could be as low as 1.8% or as high as 2.8%.

This does not mean prices will fall. It means prices will have risen less in the 12 months leading up to September 2025 than they did in the 12 months leading up to September 2024. A 2.2% COLA still represents a real increase in purchasing power for beneficiaries, just a smaller one than they received in the previous two years.

Which forecasts are available now and how reliable they are

Several organizations publish COLA forecasts months in advance. The Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit advocacy group, releases forecasts based on inflation data through the most recent month available. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget also publishes estimates. Individual economists and financial advisory firms sometimes offer their own predictions.

These forecasts are useful for planning but should not be treated as certain. They rely on assumptions about inflation in the months between now and September 2025. A significant economic shock—a spike in oil prices, a sudden change in employment, a shift in consumer spending—could alter the actual COLA. Forecasts from different sources often vary by 0.3% to 0.5%, which may seem small but translates to a difference of several dollars per month for a beneficiary receiving an average benefit.

The only official forecast comes from the Social Security Administration itself, which publishes a COLA estimate in its annual Trustees Report. The 2024 Trustees Report projected a 2025 COLA of 3.2%, which turned out to be exact. However, the Trustees Report is published in spring, so it uses inflation data only through the first quarter of the year, making it less precise than forecasts published closer to October.

What a 2.2% COLA would mean for your monthly benefit

The dollar amount of a COLA increase depends on your current benefit. Someone receiving $1,500 per month would see an increase of about $33 per month with a 2.2% COLA. Someone receiving $2,000 per month would see an increase of about $44 per month. Someone receiving $3,000 per month would see an increase of about $66 per month.

These increases take effect in January 2026. Your December 2025 check will reflect your current benefit amount. Starting with your January 2026 payment, the COLA will be applied. If you receive benefits through direct deposit, the new amount will appear in your bank account on the third of the month (or the closest business day).

The COLA applies to all types of Social Security benefits: retirement, survivor, and disability. If you receive a spouse's or child's benefit, that amount will also increase by the same percentage.

How inflation data between now and September 2025 could change the forecast

Current forecasts assume inflation will continue at roughly its recent pace. But several factors could push the actual COLA higher or lower than expected. If energy prices spike due to geopolitical events, inflation could accelerate and raise the COLA. If consumer spending slows and businesses reduce price increases, inflation could decelerate further and lower the COLA.

Housing costs, which make up a significant portion of the CPI-W, could also shift the forecast. Rent and home prices have been moderating, which would lower inflation. But if the housing market tightens unexpectedly, it could push inflation back up.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will also matter. If the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than expected, it could stimulate inflation. If it keeps rates higher to fight inflation, that could keep price growth in check. These decisions will be made between now and September 2025 and will directly affect the inflation data used to calculate the 2026 COLA.

When the official 2026 COLA will be announced and how to find it

The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2026 COLA on October 10, 2025. This date is set by law. The announcement will be made on the Social Security website (ssa.gov) and will be distributed to news media. You do not need to do anything to receive the increase; it will be applied automatically to your benefit.

If you want to see the announcement as soon as it is released, you can visit ssa.gov/news on October 10, 2025. The announcement will include the COLA percentage, the average benefit amount for different types of beneficiaries, and the new earnings limit for people who work while receiving benefits.

You can also call Social Security at 1-800-772-1213 to ask about the 2026 COLA after it has been announced. Representatives will have the official figure and can answer questions about how it affects your specific benefit amount.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can the COLA ever be zero or negative?

The COLA cannot be negative, but it can be zero. If inflation is flat or negative, the COLA is 0% and benefits do not change. This happened in 2010, 2011, and 2016. Current forecasts do not predict a zero COLA for 2026, but it is theoretically possible if deflation occurred between now and September 2025.

Do all Social Security beneficiaries get the same COLA percentage?

Yes. The COLA percentage is the same for everyone receiving Social Security benefits, regardless of benefit type or amount. A retiree, a widow, a disabled worker, and a child all receive the same percentage increase. The dollar amount of the increase varies because it is calculated on each person's current benefit.

What if I disagree with the forecast I read online?

Different forecasts vary because they use different inflation models and make different assumptions about future price changes. None of them are wrong until the actual data is released in October 2025. The official COLA is determined solely by the CPI-W data from July through September 2025, which cannot be known in advance.

Will a lower COLA affect my Medicare premiums?

Medicare Part B and Part D premiums are held harmless for most beneficiaries, meaning the premium cannot increase more than the COLA increase. However, some higher-income beneficiaries do not receive hold-harmless protection. The relationship between COLA and Medicare premiums is complex and depends on your specific income level and circumstances.

Should I plan my budget based on the forecast or wait for the official announcement?

Current forecasts are reasonably reliable for general planning purposes, but they are not may provide. If you are making major financial decisions that depend on knowing your exact 2026 benefit amount, it is safer to wait for the October 2025 announcement. For routine budgeting, using a forecast in the 2.0% to 2.6% range is reasonable.